MPS exaggerates drop out rate to signal crisis Dennis W. Redovich Greendale WI: "School reforms like requiring Algebra of all 9th graders and proficiency exams for graduation are a disaster for poor students. At MPS these reforms are causing thousands of MPS students to fail for no good reason. In the last four years only 54%, 56%, 55% and 53% in 1996-97 passed Algebra in the 9th grade. " "Percentile rankings in the fortieth percentiles by poor MPS students are exemplary. Percentile rankings in the sixtieth percentile by many MPS students are excellent. Standardized tests in the 1990's are much more difficult than those when I went to school in the 1940's. Tests with standard scores like the Wisconsin 3rd grade Reading test reading comprehension at a level not attempted in the past. The 1996-97 results were probably lower because the test was upgraded in 1996-97 and the standard changed. " Date sent: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 17:01:08 -0600 (CST) From: Leon Todd To: Education Consumers Clearinghouse Copies to: Jolene Clark Subject: MPS Dropout Rates are Bogus (fwd) ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 09:02:28 -0800 From: Dennis Redovich To: brownas@mail.milwaukee.k12.wi.us Cc: leontodd@execpc.com Subject: MPS Dropout Rates are Bogus DPI Dropout Percentages for the Milwaukee Public Schools are Bogus The word bogus may be defined as a fake, counterfeit or spurious article. The dropout rates triumphantly announced in a December 18, 1997 press release ("Milwaukee causes statewide dropout rate to increase") for the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction (DPI) are bogus. Bogus may be too mild a term for DPI and MPS procedures for determining dropout rates which are not accurate and are not appropriate for use to determine dropout rates for the Milwaukee Public Schools. Data is superficially reviewed by MPS or DPI staff because no one else ever looks at the raw data. DPI procedures for measuring dropouts use constant enrollment, 3rd Friday in the first semester. However dropouts are cumulative for the entire school year. Students who were enrolled in the second semester and did not graduate in the spring and even students who applied to enroll in the fall and never attended MPS and who do not show up in MPS schools, may be counted as dropouts in that school year. There are hundreds of students that may be counted as 1997-98 dropouts that did not show up for the 3rd Friday in September 1997 enrollment. These students may be enrolled in other School Districts or may even enroll in MPS later in the semester and be counted as MPS dropouts. Average mobility in MPS high schools is about 30% (South Division had student mobility of 75% in 96-97) and students move from school to school and in and out of the District and many are institutionalized. Mobility is the percentage of students who leave the school or who enroll in the school after the 3rd Friday. In other words 75% of the students at South Division at the end of the 1996-97 school year have changed during the school year. Dropouts from 24 Partnership and MPS Alternative schools that enroll the most difficult at-risk students (including hundreds of adjudicated students) in the state had 1,075 9-12 grade dropouts (42.9%) according to 1996-97 MPS records. These schools since 1988-89 have accounted for 25% to 35% of total MPS dropouts each year. Dropouts from about 20 Partnership schools (These schools are operated by private organizations under the authorization of MPS) and MPS Alternative schools (Separate schools from the regular 15 MPS high schools operated by MPS employees) are included in MPS System dropout totals. Enrollments in Alternative and Partnership Schools vary by more than 1,000 at different times of the year. Record keeping is not consistent from school to school and the error of measurement from year to year is probably larger than any change from year to year. When MPS dropouts increase by any amount it is exaggerated and no reason is acceptable. In 1994-95 when the rate declined from 15,4% to 12.75% the Milwaukee Sentinel said it was not statistically significant. The objective of MPS and DPI staff are to cover their own tail. The objective of politicians and bureaucrats is to further their political power and advantage. The objective of the media is to bash someone in a sensational manner, whenever. Poor MPS students are a bonanza for all. All of these groups use teachers and schools as scapegoats for social and economic problems. Bashing teachers and schools are a world wide sport and has been going on forever. The MPS administration is dumfounded. They cannot or do not explain why dropouts occur. (But MPS staff and school administrators do know and evidently are not allowed to explain how erroneous dropout statistics vary from year to year) Unbelievably MPS top Administration never seem to notice or explain things like the following. 1. Dropouts from North Division increased from 118 (12.5%) to 330 (35%) from 95-96 to 96-97. This is about 10% of total MPS dropouts. 2. Dropouts from South increased from 205 (12.4%) to 348 (23.1%) while student mobility increased from 47% to 75%. 3. Alternative and Partnership schools have accounted for 25% or more of all MPS dropouts forever. Dropout rates for these schools are extremely inaccurate and should be considered separately from regular MPS schools. Alternative and Partnership schools have the most difficult at-risk students in the state including hundreds of adjudicated students. These schools are in most cases doing an exemplary job. Without Alternative and Partnership Schools their students dropout rate might be 90% in total. Prior to 1988-89 Alternative and Partnership Schools were not included in MPS total dropout statistics. Dropout rates for regular MPS high schools were 10.x% in the 80's until 88-89. In 1996-97 MPS regular high schools had a dropout rate of 10.7%. They have not increased even though student characteristics and poverty have changed significantly. School reforms like requiring Algebra of all 9th graders and proficiency exams for graduation are a disaster for poor students. At MPS these reforms are causing thousands of MPS students to fail for no good reason. In the last four years only 54%, 56%, 55% and 53% in 1996-97 passed Algebra in the 9th grade. All MPS 9th graders are required to take Algebra. Retention rates in the 9th grade have increased by thousands and this will be a major cause of increases in dropouts and decreases in the graduation rate. Insane is too mild a term for these school reforms. MPS records show that 36.3% of MPS dropouts (about 1,200) were from the 9th grade in 1996-97. Over 60% of dropouts were from the 9th and 10th grade. Obviously, a majority left MPS because they were not progressing satisfactorily towards graduation. Many of these students probably enrolled in other School Districts in Wisconsin or somewhere in the U.S. But they are being counted as MPS dropouts. Students cannot legally dropout of school prior to the age of 18 in Wisconsin. W-2 is undoubtedly having an effect on MPS dropouts for numerous reasons. One being that poor families disappear from Milwaukee and no one knows where they have gone. (Which of course is the reason for having W-2) Children from these families are counted as dropouts. Governor Thompson says he will dissolve MPS and eliminate the MPS Board if MPS doesn't meet his objectives according to a front page story in the January 21, 1998 Journal/Sentinel. This drastic step is proposed based on bogus MPS dropout reports. It is ridiculous. The accountability measures stated in the Governor's State Address that need to be improved in two years are a piece of cake. They can be achieved immediately with a a few policy changes and an audit of dropout data. Dropout data has not been carefully reviewed for a number of years by MPS or DPI staff. It will be very easy to tighten up on data collection procedures and show a dramatic improvement next year to the delight of the politicians. However with out verification from outside auditors it will not have credibility. The accountability goals are as follows: 1. Increase graduation rate from 86.6% to 90%. More than 90% of seniors in the fall at most MPS regular high schools graduate in June. If several hundred MPS seniors who did not pass the math proficiency test (only 91% passed in 1996-97) received diplomas and students who graduate the next semester or graduate from another institution like MATC the graduation rate for MPS would be more than 90% immediately. (I do not know if Partnership and Alternative School seniors are used in the 86.6% calculation) Recommendation: Eliminate the useless math proficiency exam, determine the number of seniors who graduate from other high schools and do not include any Partnership School graduation rate that may be included now. 2. Increase attendance from 89% to 91%. The error of measurement of this statistic is more than 2%. A 2% increase is not even statistically significant. Recommendation; Audit attendance data and procedures to determine an accurate rate. Eliminate disastrous 9th Grade Algebra requirement. 3. Cut the dropout rate from 14% (14% is obviously not a precise or accurate number for 1996-97) to 9%. The stated dropout rate for 1995-96 was 9.9% (including Partnership and Alternative Schools) and was 7.3% for the 15 regular high schools. Even the bogus 14% dropout rate is lower than dropout rates in some recent years. Coming up with a 9% rate should be no problem. Recommendation: Dropout data collection procedures should be audited. Regular high schools and Partnership and Alternative schools should be shown separately. Analysis of data should be by school not just by all MPS schools. Large changes in dropout rates by school should be carefully studied to determine reasons for dropouts. 4. Close the gap between MPS' and the state's third-grade reading tests. My analysis of 3rd grade reading test results over a four year period indicate that, considering the social-economic status of MPS students, MPS teachers are doing an exemplary job of teaching reading. Lower scores in 1997 were the result of an updated test and a new standard and there is no evidence for any other explanation.. Recommendation: Reading instruction at MPS schools who are at or above the state average (some MPS schools have 100% of their students above the standard) should be studied to provide assistance for schools with lower scores. When I analyze MPS test results I find that MPS teachers are doing an admirable job under the most difficult conditions. On normed tests about 50% of students are "below average". Percentile rankings in the fortieth percentiles by poor MPS students are exemplary. Percentile rankings in the sixtieth percentile by many MPS students are excellent. Standardized tests in the 1990's are much more difficult than those when I went to school in the 1940's. Tests with standard scores like the Wisconsin 3rd grade Reading test reading comprehension at a level not attempted in the past. The 1996-97 results were probably lower because the test was upgraded in 1996-97 and the standard changed. However any lower scores by MPS students are always blamed on teachers. School bashers have no need or desire to find reasons. The following is a letter to the editor submitted to the Milwaukee Journal/Sentinel that was published on December 23, 1998 with the exception of parts of two paragraphs. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Morning Mail December 19, 1997 The sensational headline of December 19, "MPS dropouts soar, leading state rise", is just another example of an academically disadvantaged media gleefully bashing the schools of the State of Wisconsin and MPS schools who are doing a commendable job under difficult conditions, Dropout rates in Wisconsin and at MPS are at historical lows in the 1990's. Until the 1960's a majority of high school students in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and the U.S. did not graduate from high school. A majority of Wisconsin and U.S. workers did not graduate from the 8th grade until the 1950's. The graph on page 19 shows the significant decline in high school dropouts since 1984 in the State of Wisconsin. In 1996-97 if MPS dropouts are not included the dropout rate for Wisconsin high schools is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in 1995-96. The headlines should be extolling the remarkably low dropout rates in Wisconsin. The MPS dropout rate of 13.5% in 1996-97 is lower than the 17.4% and 15.4% of the 1992-93 and 1993-94 Fuller years. Of course when the MPS dropout rate went down from 15.4% to 12.75% (93-94 to 94-95) and from 12.75% to 9.9% (94-95 to 95-96) there were no headlines in the paper. The Milwaukee Sentinel said (on the back pages in small print) that the 94-95 decline was not statistically significant. Dropout rates at regular MPS high schools are not unreasonably high (example King and Vincent 2% in 95-96). A high percentage of MPS dropouts come from Alternative and Partnership schools who are doing a commendable job serving the most difficult at risk students in the state. What the DPI and MPS must do is to determine the reasons for dropouts and the profiles of MPS dropouts. This is something I have been telling them for years. The analysis of data in MPS and DPI reports is not up to the educational standards that they are supposedly going to demand of high school kids. Dennis W. Redovich 6438 Sycamore St. Greendale WI 53129 414-421-1120 Date sent: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 17:06:33 -0600 (CST) From: Leon Todd To: Education Consumers Clearinghouse Copies to: Jolene Clark Subject: Algebra Standard & Dropouts Statistics -fwd (fwd) ---------------------------------------- To: Alan Brown, MPS Superintendent Msg #: 1093 Size: 3485/51 From: leontodd@execpc.com On: 12/20/97 14:56 Subject: Algebra Standard & Dropouts Statistics cc: General Press Release County Board Common Council Milwaukee Legislative Delegation College Board The Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) is the only public school system in the U.S. that has implemented a policy that requires all 9th graders to take algebra in order to pass to the 10th grade. This reform initiative has caused the dropout statistic to be grossly overstated and has resulted in a fabricated controversy over the performance of the district. The negative image of the district is being ineptly managed by your administration, and skillfully exploited and manipulated by the local media. Your administration is out of control and causing great harm to the board and the district. In November 1996, MPS received an award and additional funding from the College Board for continuing and expanding the program, Equity 2000. MPS received an award for substituting algebra, which many failing students in all probability may never use, for consumer or ecomonic math which employers minimaly need students to master for most twenty first century employment. Not only will many of these ill prepared students who can't read above the third grade reading level never learn algebra but they are denied the opportunity to learn consumer math which will benefit them greatly. This school reform, initiated by former MPS Supt. Howard Fuller, has had disasterous results for many of the districts one hundred thousand students. In 1993-94 54% of MPS 9th graders passed Algebra, 1994-95 56%, and 1995-96 54% and only 19% of North Division 9th graders passed Algebra. Students that did not pass the exam were held back at the ninth grade which is not only demoralizing to students without adequate summer school opportunities in basic reading comprehension but caused a spurious dropout statistic to be generated for the district. This failed reform initiative has had catastrophic results for MPS, cannot be considered a success for which we should receive a reward, and has caused great harm to thousands of students for no good reason. There is a bulge, not explained by new students to the system, in 9th grade enrollments each year at MPS because thousands of 9th graders do not earn enough credits to become 10th graders. Ninth grade enrollment at MPS high schools increased by 1,256 from 93-94, when Algebra became a requirement, to 95-96. Since your administration makes no attempt to disaggregate new freshmen from continuing freshman in calculating the drop out statistic and makes no assessment of which students leave MPS for other districts where they can earn a diploma without the necessity of passing the ninth grade algebra test, the unnecessary and meaningless controversy over the district's performance will continue unabated into the future. I believe the formula for calculating the current dropout statistic was a convention of Susan and George Mitchell. Perhaps they would do well to take a MPS algebra course so they could get the formula right the first time. These pseudo researcher consultants outrageously use the difference between MPS 9th grade and 12th grade enrollments as a MPS graduation or dropout rate. The MPS graduation rate, measured by seniors who enroll in the fall of any given year who graduate in June has been in past years about 90%, the statewide average. (In 1994, my most recent data, 7 MPS schools were 91% to 96%) An accurate way to determine the rate of 9th graders who graduate later would be to disaggregate the continuing freshman from the new freshman and recalculate the dropout statistic, assuming you did not want to use the beginning senior year statistics for a better measure of dropouts. Valid dropout studies most often find that students indicate "personal reasons" for dropping out of school. It's time for more research on why students give the personal reason for droping out of school and seek to determine what "personal" really means. Millions being spent on failed and pseudo school reforms in Milwaukee are being wasted and should be used reducing class size, reinstating summer school, resolving the severe teacher shortage problem and getting certified staff into every classroom, and providing adequate phonics reading instructional resources in the primary grades, particularly for the children of color who desperately need sound direct systematic phonics reading instruction. The high pay and high skill jobs of the future that require algebra and "high" academic skills simply don't exist for most gratuates and especially for poverty class people of color. Furthermore, many students are unaware of the high skill high paying jobs that do exist. Many times, public schools are scapegoats for our social and economic problems caused by the loss of family living wage jobs. And many time there is simply political manipulation of the truth. Since the dropout rate, by your own administration's confessions, have been inaccurate and understated in the past and we must adjust for them now, the integrity of the database as well as the integrity of past administrations has been called into question. By somehow understating the past dropout rate, past district numbers have not been as severe as they should have been. It is unfortunate that your administration must bear the brunt of the questions that must be raised about the performance and ethics of those who ran the district in the past. Whether the discrepancies were a display of ineptitude or deceit gives reason for a careful audit of the past and more careful scrutiny of future data presented to the board and to the public in the board's behalf. You may want to seek an outside audit of the data to insure that the information is indeed accurately presented and all inconsistencies eliminated. I continue to be disappointed in the performance of your research department and your communications department. Leon Todd 444-9490 Milwaukee School Board member and Chair of Accountability and Audit Committee ======================================== EDUCATION CONSUMERS CLEARINGHOUSE Date sent: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 17:01:43 -0600 (CST) From: Leon Todd To: Education Consumers Clearinghouse Copies to: Jolene Clark Subject: MPS Technical Committee (fwd) ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 26 Jan 1998 09:18:28 -0800 From: Dennis Redovich To: brownas@mail.milwaukee.k12.wi.us Cc: leontodd@execpc.com Subject: MPS Technical Committee Milwaukee Public Schools Dropout Data The Milwaukee Public Schools at the direction of Supt. Brown is conducting a detailed analysis of both the method and process for calculating dropouts, as well as useful intervention programs to help those students most at risk of dropping out of school. A MPS Technical Committee to work on identifying and suggesting needed changes in the process and method of calculating dropouts has been appointed. Tim McElhatton of MPS Research and Assessment is chairing the committee composed of Bob DiDomoto, Hamilton high school, Joe Nemoir, Vincent high school, Willie Jude, North Division high school, Aquine Jackson and George Krieger, Parent and Student Services and Deanna Housfeld Research and Assessment. This Technical committee met on December 13, 1997 and Tim McElhatton wrote an Analysis of MPS Dropouts dated January 13, 1998 which was discussed at the second meeting of the committee on January 16, 1998. A 26 page fax was sent to me on January 22, 1998 which included a letter to Dennis W. Redovich inviting him to join the committee as a non-paid volunteer advisor and the only non-MPS member. The January 13 "Analysis of MPS Dropouts" and the minutes of the January 16 meeting were reviewed. These are my findings. 1. MPS technical staff and school administrators are fully aware of the serious problems with the MPS and DPI procedures for calculating dropouts. They are fully aware of reasons for the dropout rate decline in 1995-96 and increase in 1996-97. They have made excellent suggestions as to how the process can be improved for accuracy. (see attached pages of observations and analysis of dropout data) 2. For unknown reasons, the MPS Central Administration has not responded to the public and media outcry ("MPS dropouts soar, leading state rise") about the reported 44% increase in 1996-97 dropouts to 13.9%. The highly critical DPI press release of December 18, 1997. continued the negative view of MPS teachers and schools in the media. MPS Administration did nothing to counteract serious takeover proposals by DPI and the Governor. Both propose to dissolve the duly elected MPS Board of Directors because of the purported MPS dropout crisis. Why? The reasons are known. 3. MPS and DPI dropout rate calculation procedures are bogus. This is obvious to any statistician who sees the great variations by school and in total from year to year. 4. I would suggest that not only must the procedures for counting the number of dropouts be corrected but the enrollment used to obtain a dropout rate must be corrected. Enrollment used should be a non-duplicated cumulative enrollment for the school year, not the 3rd Friday enrollment. If dropouts are cumulative for the year than enrollments must also be cumulative. Dennis W. Redovich January 1998 Dr. Brown I expect that you will respond to my numerous communications I believe you are getting bad advice from inside and outside MPS. I have numerous communications pending? to the MPS Board such as my report School-to Work Evaluation is a Fraud. When are you going to address the issues that I bring up. My motivation is to help you not bash MPS. I will not go away quietly. My motivation is not personal gain.