Date sent: Thu, 7 Aug 1997 03:13:45 -0400 (EDT) From: "Philip V. Brennan Jr." To: "'C-news@world.std.com'" Subject: C-NEWS: Part Four, GlobalWarming of Globaloney, Wednesday on the Web Send reply to: "Philip V. Brennan Jr." Note: Part Five is now online at http://www.pacg.com/pvbr/ Cover Story Series from Wednesday on the Web http://www.pacg.com/pvbr/ GLOBALWARMING OR GLOBALONEY PART FOUR By Phil Brennan The year 1896 looms large in the history of modern day climatolgy. It was then that a Nobel prize winner, Svante Arrhenius coined the phrase "Greenhouse Effect." In his time, however, nobody associated the phrase with global warming because it had not occurred to anybody that earth's climate was about to change. In 1938, Britain's Sir George Simpson of the Royal Meteorological Office became the first climatologist to show that the greenhouse effect would not create global warming, but instead, would increase cloud cover, one of triggers that set off glaciation. Wrote Simpson: "I was able to show that if the solar radiation [the so-called greenhouse effect] were to increase, the temperature of the earth's surface would not increase to anything like the extent that one would expect from an increase of solar radiation; but that the clouds would increase and return the greater part of the additional solar radiation without warming the surface of the earth ... The light which the clouds reflect cannot be used to warm the earth; it is just returned to space, and to that extent the solar radiation is reduced ..." In 1955 famed geologist Cesare Emiliani discovered the existence of a series seven systemic ice ages by measuring oxygen isotopes in ocean bottom cores. Two years later, two scientists, Roger Revelle and Hans Suess, set out to convince their colleagues -- and later, politicians -- that the earth was entering a global warming phase. It was they who first enlisted a young Tennessee Congressman named Al Gore in the global warming campaign. Then, in the early 1960s, George Kukla and Julius Fink examined glacial loess deposits and found evidence of ten ice ages in the samples. Later, in 1977, the journal Quaternary Research published their findings in an article "Pleistocene Climates in Central Europe: At least 17 Interglacials after the Olduvai Event." "Their study carefully documented their work in the interlayered soils exposed in excavated brickyards of Czechoslovakia," wrote John Hamaker in The Survival of Civilization." Their work revealed "17 major cycles of glacial loess deposition and subsequent interglacial soil 'decalcification' (and overall demineralization) over the last 1.7 million years..." According to former government scientist, futurist and psychologist -- and the real historian of the global warming/global cooling dispute, Dr. George Kaplan, the majority of climatologists subscribed to the belief that the world was approaching the onset of glaciation. "In 1955, Cesare Emiliani ... brought forward what we would consider the modern contribution to deep climate research," Kaplan said in a 1984 interview. "And Emiliani predicted the onset of ice ages. He discussed ice ages of the past, and from them was able to predict what was happening now. And so, beginning in '55 we find the start of serious climatology, with a number of researchers all of a sudden entering the area and becoming very interested in what was happening to climate. All of them ... just about all of them -- stressing the cooling aspects going down into the next ice age. "In 1957 the counter theory was brought to the fore and this was the carbon dioxide warming theory born from Dr. Roger R. Revelle and Dr. Hans Seuss, both of them from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. And in 1957 began the controversy between two major theories of climate -- one cooling, the other warming." Kaplan then noted that studies of the climate , past and present, conclusively proved the fallacy of the warming theory. "We found essentially that it was cooling. We found that despite the fact that we were doubling our carbon dioxide production every 10 or 12 years from industry, despite that fact, it was cooling. The more carbon dioxide we produced, the colder it got." In a 1980 monograph that is as current today as it was then, Dr. Kaplan traced the development of the global warming movement. Noting Emiliani's ocean core studies and Kukla's work in Czechoslovakia, he wrote: "In the late 1960s the land and ocean bottom findings were shown to match, and by then it was shown that the interglacials were relatively short respites between the long ice ages. In the late 1970s the wide interdisciplinary range of research showed that it had been cooling on each time scale and that the present interglacial period was at its end. "It was further pointed out that cooling and snow cover in the northern hemisphere began to grow in 1938 and that there appeared to be a strong relationship between the doubling of carbon dioxide production every 10-12 years since 1938 and the 1.5 degree Celsius loss in average northern hemisphere temperature since that time. Certainly the statistical correlation was very high." Noting that hardly anything had been heard at the time about the warming theory between 1957 when Revelle and Seuss began touting the theory, and 1976, Kaplan wrote that a 1976 energy crisis policy meeting at the U.S. National Academy of Sciences sparked the onset of the global warming alarm. "The policy as it affected the climate soon became evident. The warming theory was revived and began to receive much attention from the media. A sizeable effort was launched to determine the effects of warming on the world environment and society. The National Academy opened an avenue of research by groups which included the President's Council of Economic Advisors, The Mitre Corporation, and the Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies."A series of meetings was held in Aspen Colorado; Annapolis, Maryland; Houston,Texas, and other locations. These meetings discussed the effects of the warming on the environment, economy, and life style." By May of 1977, it had become evident that the Federal Government was unofficially on board the global warming express. Yet a 1979 poll of top climatologists showed that 81 percent of those responding predicted from a variety of findings that it was cooling , and not warming, that the world faced. Wrote Kaplan: "these findings were drawn from a wide variety of disciplines and methods, from oxygen isotope studies of the ocean bottom strata to carbon 14 studies of tree rings, and included time scales from millions of years to tens of years. "Yet despite the evidence of the thermometer, the great increase of violent climatic variability and drought which accompany cooling, and the opinions of the large majority of scientists, the warming theory continued to be pursued in a manner which received frequent notice in the media, and which produced a stream of letter, brochures, and conferences aimed at the world's political and economic leaders." Kaplan wondered exactly what was behind this refusal of the powers that be to even consider the overwhelming evidence that the climate was cooling and that we are in the final days of an interglacial. He then asked a question that is yet to be answered. "Has the warming theory 'campaign' been the last stand of an arrant scientific ideology? Such a hypothesis can be acceptable to some, bit the obvious failing of the theory in the face of global catastrophe argues for a more substantial motivation. "It would pay to investigate this motivation further to consider whether politics has been responsive to poor science or whether economics and politics have made false tools out of science for narrow interest. "If the latter is true the manipulation and subversion of the truth seeking apparatus by political and private interests is, in the present situation, of such extreme malevolence that it ranks as the greatest malfeasance in history. We are headed for a situation where mankind may be forced to confront the question of whether the political mode as we have known it over the past 8,000 years is innately incapable of dealing with serious problems. "The record for the political mode in regard to climate is, after all, dismal. In 1972, a sizeable group of climatologists meeting at Brown University issued letters to the governments of the world in which they warned of a global climatic disaster. Again in 1974 the International Federation of Institutes of Advanced Study issued a similarly grave message to the community of governments from a meeting in Bonn. In 1976 a meeting of 85 climatologists chaired by the late Nobel Laureate Willard Libby and pioneer climatologist Cesare Emiliani put forth another warning which was put into language by Libby. In 1976, the CIA released two reports which it had written in 1974 and which provided the same message in greater detail (but in 1977 military climate researchers, backed up by other government agencies, told the writer that the CIA reports had been discounted by the government). The consensus of the World Climate Conference was reported by Nature as stating that the world has entered a 10,000 year cooling, that the warming theory was complex and questionable, and that the loss of life and economic substance to the climate would increase." Today, almost 18 years later, the U.S. and other governments, whole slews of scientists dependent upon government grants, and the media, remain wedded to the global warming baloney despite mounting evidence that their cherished climate models have failed dismally to support their predictions of global warming -- predictions which seem to change from year to year in frantic efforts to explain why last year's predictions failed to materialize. Next Week: What Coming Glaciation Means to the Earth & Its People. ------- To subscribe to c-news, send the message SUBSCRIBE C-NEWS, or the message UNSUBSCRIBE C-NEWS to unsubscribe, to majordomo@world.std.com. Contact owner-c-news@world.std.com if you have questions.