f:\doc\web\2000\11\8020.txt
Condition 11-15-00- - Message sent to -- arthurhu@halcyon.com


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(1) Creating a Post-Election Win-Win Situation


        CNN and NY Times both took nation-wide exit polls.  Their results 
on APA voting strongly agree and therefore are likely reliable.


CNN:          Asians (nation-side)  Gore/Bush/Nader = 55/41/4
NY Times:     Asians (nation-wide)  Gore/Bush/Nader = 54/41/4


NY Times also published how Asians voted in 1992 and 1996:


1992: Asians (nation-wide, NY Times)  Clinton/Bush/Perot = 31/55/15
1996: Asians (nation-wide, NY Times)  Clinton/Dole/Perot = 43/48/8


Wait until the Republican hierarchy and the APA Republican leaders 
have time to evaluate the drastic decline in APA votes for Republican 
presidential candidates, as revealed by the above polls!


>From the Republican Party's point of view, APAs went from +24 pts. in 
favor of the GOP in 1992 to +5 in 1996 to -13 in 2000.  The big change 
from +24 to +5, a 19 pt. decline, was probably due to the drastic 
reversal in candidates' incumbency -- in 92' Bush was the sitting 
president, and in 96' Clinton was the sitting president.  APAs tended to 
go for the aura that came with a sitting president.  The huge decrease 
from +5 to -13, a decline of another 18 points, could only be explained 
three ways.


Either Asians are increasingly disenchanted with the Republicans,
or it was owing to the effectiveness of 80-20, or a mixture of both.


Which of the above 3 interpretations will the APA Republican leaders 
choose?  


If the APA leaders choose the former, it is equivalent to admitting that 
they failed to speak out for APA interests while they were on the watch, 
resulting in APAs' disenchantment with GOP.  In addition, their own 
importance in GOP will decrease, since the contribution of the APA arm 
in the GOP is now negative.  The GOP hierarchy may even decide to 
clean house and get rid of the current APA leaders who let the 
Republican influence in the APA community fall so badly.  


On the other hand, if the APA leaders choose the second explanation, 
their fortune may rise.  The decision not to work with 80-20 was 
probably made by non-APA Republican national leaders.  The APA 
leaders could now use the above data to reverse that bad decision and 
work with 80-20 in order to win 80-20's endorsement 4 years from now.  


Choose the first interpretation, it may be political suicide for the APA 
leaders in the GOP.  Choose the second, it'll be a WIN-WIN SITUATION 
for them and the APA community!


Please pass this e-mail to your friends and relatives who are influential 
in the Republican Party.  We must seize the opportunity presented by 
these polls and create a window of opportunity for our children -- 80-20
working closely with both Rep. and Dem. APA leaders.
 


2. 80-20's Effectiveness in California


A few 80-20 detractors pointed to a CNN exit poll as an example that 
80-20 was ineffective.  That poll sampled 2644 voters, polling 159 Asian 
Pacific Americans, the breakdown of the CA statewide APA vote is as
follows:          Gore/Bush/Nader  = 48/47/4 %


In our previous email, 80-20 quoted two polls from San Francisco
(by CAVEC, the Chinese American Voter Education Committee) and Los 
Angeles (by APALC, the Asian Pacific American Legal Center).  


The poll results are below:
CAVEC (sample size: 1247, with 192 Ch-Am, SF only)

Gore/Bush/Nader  = 82/16/2 %


APALC (sample size 5000, 2000 APAs, LA only)
Gore/Bush/Nader  = 63/35/3 %


Both of the above organizations focused efforts on polling APA voters, 
offering bilingual poll takers and translations of poll questions.


The detractors claimed that 80-20 quoted self-serving polls.  However, 
both of these polling organizations are NON-PARTISAN & UNAFFILIATED 
with 80-20.  


If 80-20 detractors were saying that they believe in exit polls done by 
non-APA organizations only, a troubling proposition, then they should 
be aware of two things.  First, the CNN California poll contradicts 
its regional poll (West Coast) data and its national poll results, 
both indicating that APAs voted about 55/41 for Gore/Bush.


Secondly, the Los Angeles Times also did a California state-wide poll.  
LA Times has considerable experience in polling CA voters.  This poll 
sampled 3,474 voters, with 174 APAs (Source: LA Times pollster: Ray 
Enslow).  Its results, for APAs STATE-WIDE:
Gore/Bush/Nader = 63/33/4


These are the poll results - you be the judge.






http://www.80-20initiative.net